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The Delhi opportunity [6th Aug 2011, Hindustan Times]

 
Will the housing stock available in Delhi under MPD 2021 be less expensive than the supply coming up in Gurgaon and Noida?

Issues related to one of the most precious resources on this planet ­ land ­ have been grabbing the headlines recently. There's been much debate over the volatile situation in Noida and Greater Noida and over the draft Land Acquisition and Resettlement and Rehabilitation Bill, 2011, expected to be tabled in the Parliament in the ongoing monsoon session. Now, what one needs to know is the kind of impact this bill (when it becomes an act) and the Noida-Greater Noida fiasco will have on the 25,000 acres of residential land to be unlocked in Delhi under the Master Plan Delhi 2021.

The Gurgaon-Noida success story was based on the premise of scarcity of land in Delhi. It was the absolute dearth of land in the Capital that forced people to look for options in the periphery.

Delhi remained a distant dream for those aspiring to own properties here ­ a good indicator being the whopping eight lakh applications for the 4,500 DDA flats in 2008 and the over 12 lakh applications for the 15,000 homes in the 2010 housing draw.

If land becomes scarce in the National Capital Region (NCR) ­ what with the government being required to pay twice the amount for land it acquires (if the land acquisition bill becomes an act) and if a quick resolution to the Noida-Greater Noida problem is not found ­ will those aspiring to buy a home be left without any options?

Not likely, because of the nearly 14 lakh residential units expected to come up in the five zones envisaged under MPD 2021. This fresh supply is expected to have a stabilising impact on property prices in and around the national capital territory (NCT). It should be noted that the NCR will be redefined as the national capital territory under the new Master Plan and the NCT of Delhi divided into 15 zones under the new MPD.

Out of these A to H, P, M and K1 are in urban Delhi and J, K2, L, N and P2 fall in what is known as urban extension.

There are almost 4,475 hectares in zone N and 5,400 hectares in zone L, and each acre of land is likely to have about 80 dwelling units. The PPP model will be adopted for all developments under MPD 2021. It is reliably learnt that the private sector, which includes developers and institutional investors, has acquired more than 5,000 acres of land in zone N.

MPD 2021 envisages the creation of a land pool by builders themselves for all future housing projects. DDA will, however, have to work out a plan to get one-third of land required for roads, social infrastructure like police stations and physical infrastructure like waterline, drainage and solid waste management.

According to AK Jain, former Delhi Development Authority planning commissioner, the total number of units required by 2021 is 24 lakh. Almost 14 lakh units are to be provided in the five zones in MPD 2021. It is comparable to the number of units envisaged in the master plans of other micro markets such as Noida and Gurgaon. About 4-5 lakh units are to be built as per both the Gurgaon Manesar Master Plan 2025 and the Noida 2031 Master Plan.

As for the status of MPD 2021, “The policy of land pooling through private partnership will be placed before the authority first after various models are considered. It will then be sent to the government of India for approval as per the procedures laid down in the Master Plan,“ says Nemo Dhar, DDA spokesperson.

The immediate impact of this new residential stock will be on pricing of similar properties in Noida and Gurgaon.

Property prices will become more stable and competitive and Delhi will boast of reasonably priced mid-segment housing stock 

But is the cost of land in Delhi less expensive than the land parcels in Noida and Gurgaon? The cost of land in Delhi in zone N (urbanisable land for residential projects) is R1 crore to R1.5 crore per acre whereas in Gurgaon it is already available at R3.5 crore per acre. In Noida, the government acquires the land and then sells it. Delhi is now a free market and under MPD 2021, developers can buy directly from villagers. “The Delhi opportunity is attractive to institutional investors who are likely to coinvest millions of dollars here since the city is an end-user market. Even if one were to assume that a million units would come up within 10 years, a major part of this demand may get addressed at affordable prices,“ says Ramesh Menon of Certes Realty.

The Delhi State Industrial and Infrastructure Development Corp will execute several prestigious projects in the coming years. This will include a R1,200 crore knowledge based industrial park at Baprola and another one in Kanjhawala, with both likely to provide employment to about 5 lakh people. This is likely to perhaps result in reverse migration from the micro cities.

Issues related to one of the most precious resources on this planet ­ land ­ have been grabbing the headlines recently. There's been much debate over the volatile situation in Noida and Greater Noida and over the draft Land Acquisition and Resettlement and Rehabilitation Bill, 2011, expected to be tabled in the Parliament in the ongoing monsoon session. Now, what one needs to know is the kind of impact this bill (when it becomes an act) and the Noida-Greater Noida fiasco will have on the 25,000 acres of residential land to be unlocked in Delhi under the Master Plan Delhi 2021.

The Gurgaon-Noida success story was based on the premise of scarcity of land in Delhi. It was the absolute dearth of land in the Capital that forced people to look for options in the periphery.

Delhi remained a distant dream for those aspiring to own properties here ­ a good indicator being the whopping eight lakh applications for the 4,500 DDA flats in 2008 and the over 12 lakh applications for the 15,000 homes in the 2010 housing draw.

If land becomes scarce in the National Capital Region (NCR) ­ what with the government being required to pay twice the amount for land it acquires (if the land acquisition bill becomes an act) and if a quick resolution to the Noida-Greater Noida problem is not found ­ will those aspiring to buy a home be left without any options?

Not likely, because of the nearly 14 lakh residential units expected to come up in the five zones envisaged under MPD 2021. This fresh supply is expected to have a stabilising impact on property prices in and around the national capital territory (NCT). It should be noted that the NCR will be redefined as the national capital territory under the new Master Plan and the NCT of Delhi divided into 15 zones under the new MPD.

Out of these A to H, P, M and K1 are in urban Delhi and J, K2, L, N and P2 fall in what is known as urban extension.

There are almost 4,475 hectares in zone N and 5,400 hectares in zone L, and each acre of land is likely to have about 80 dwelling units. The PPP model will be adopted for all developments under MPD 2021. It is reliably learnt that the private sector, which includes developers and institutional investors, has acquired more than 5,000 acres of land in zone N.

MPD 2021 envisages the creation of a land pool by builders themselves for all future housing projects. DDA will, however, have to work out a plan to get one-third of land required for roads, social infrastructure like police stations and physical infrastructure like waterline, drainage and solid waste management.

According to AK Jain, former Delhi Development Authority planning commissioner, the total number of units required by 2021 is 24 lakh. Almost 14 lakh units are to be provided in the five zones in MPD 2021. It is comparable to the number of units envisaged in the master plans of other micro markets such as Noida and Gurgaon. About 4-5 lakh units are to be built as per both the Gurgaon Manesar Master Plan 2025 and the Noida 2031 Master Plan.

As for the status of MPD 2021, “The policy of land pooling through private partnership will be placed before the authority first after various models are considered. It will then be sent to the government of India for approval as per the procedures laid down in the Master Plan,“ says Nemo Dhar, DDA spokesperson.

The immediate impact of this new residential stock will be on pricing of similar properties in Noida and Gurgaon.

Property prices will become more stable and competitive and Delhi will boast of reasonably priced mid-segment housing stock 

But is the cost of land in Delhi less expensive than the land parcels in Noida and Gurgaon? The cost of land in Delhi in zone N (urbanisable land for residential projects) is R1 crore to R1.5 crore per acre whereas in Gurgaon it is already available at R3.5 crore per acre. In Noida, the government acquires the land and then sells it. Delhi is now a free market and under MPD 2021, developers can buy directly from villagers. “The Delhi opportunity is attractive to institutional investors who are likely to coinvest millions of dollars here since the city is an end-user market. Even if one were to assume that a million units would come up within 10 years, a major part of this demand may get addressed at affordable prices,“ says Ramesh Menon of Certes Realty.

The Delhi State Industrial and Infrastructure Development Corp will execute several prestigious projects in the coming years. This will include a R1,200 crore knowledge based industrial park at Baprola and another one in Kanjhawala, with both likely to provide employment to about 5 lakh people. This is likely to perhaps result in reverse migration from the micro cities.

 
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